Endemic - 2021

Right about now we are at the two year mark for Covid-19.  There are so many things we still don't know for sure, despite spending time, money and other societal resources in unimaginable amounts, but I think it is fair to say that it started in the last few months of 2019.

I should note up front that there are things that you are not permitted to say in various versions of the Public Square.  I'll try not to stumble close to any of them, but to be honest in some cases information has gone from Fake! to Misinformation, to Plausible, to Probable....and back again.  I'm going to assume anyone who has bothered to read this far is not the mindless sheep that the Guardians of the Internet assume us to be, and is capable of weighing competing viewpoints and actually pondering them.

So, what's going on with this data:

These graphs are from Worldometer the morning of 15 November.  They are specific to Wisconsin but are similar to data from across the Northern US.  They indicate a rise in "cases" and a simultaneous near disappearance of deaths.  I'm putting cases in parentheses because that is a grab bag of things from sudden, severe illness down to feeling punk, further down the ladder to runny nose, and ending up with no symptoms or even potentially false positives.  Death is the ultimate in unambiguous and so gets no quotation marks.  Although even there the issue of dying of versus with Covid is a fair question.

At the time of the above graphs Wisconsin stood at just above 60% of the population vaccinated.  The numbers are somewhat opaque, and don't specifically indicate the percentage of eligible people vaccinated.  With the recent increase in the eligible pool coming from approval in younger children there should have been some jumping around of these percentages if they accounted for that approval.  So like many Covid numbers all you can say is that lots of people are getting immunized.  It is reasonable to infer that in the demographic actually at risk for serious illness the numbers are much higher.  I've seen stats suggesting 98.5% rates in seniors with about a third already getting the much vaunted booster.

So, to return to the two graphs - one grim one cheery - I'd conclude the following.  Covid rates are still significant.  But the percentage that are getting seriously ill has dropped to almost nothing.  It is only back of the envelope math, but the overall rate of US Covid mortality is around 2%.  On November 9th three people died of Covid in Wisconsin.  With the usual two weeks or so lead time between infection and demise, and roughly 3000 cases a day in that time frame, the current mortality rate is .1%.  A twenty fold drop.  So how's that possible?

Lots more testing increases the cases number.  Especially in advance of holiday travel.  This is not entirely good or bad, but mostly good.  You should be tested before you go see grandpa in Keokuk.  More testing, especially in the younger demographic, more results and more positive results.

I also strongly suspect that the number of "breakthrough" cases in the vaccinated is considerably higher than reported.  Heck, the acknowledged rate is already much higher than what was being reported a few months back.  Are the increased case numbers 10% breakthroughs?  20%? Higher?

But at least Covid is no longer causing deaths at the rates seen a year ago.  There are multiple factors in play, some optimistic, some not.

Treatment has gotten better.  We were supposed to have a two week lockdown to help the medical system prepare.  If two years has not done it, well we'll never be ready.  And there actually have been some much improved treatment options.

Immunity, both from vaccine and from getting the darn stuff, does seem to protect from more serious disease.  Better data on the specifics (acquired vs natural, various vaccine combinations, assorted age demographics) would be nice, but again after inconceivable expenditure the answers on this as in so much else, are elusive.

And finally, sadly, the cohort of people most likely to die of Covid has already been hit hard.  The ranks of frail elderly people with co-morbidities has been clobbered, with deaths from the disease, from an over strained health care system, from deferred screening for other things, and from just plain loneliness and isolation.

Well that's how it all looked on the morning of 15 November.  I got my booster yesterday*.  I got pretty loopy from the last one and for a brief shining moment understood the complete inner workings of quantum physics, Cosmology and the Drake Paradox.  So maybe all the above data makes total sense to me this morning.

Above is a scene from Time Bandits.  The weird midgets have stolen the map that shows the complete structure of the Universe including all the holes and patchwork.  Those of you who know me, feel free to comment on which dwarf you think I most resemble.

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 *That's my decision.  If yours is different I'll respect it.  If the opinions I express above make you unhappy I'll respect that too.  In the end it's about our own Mortality.  This is the most uncomfortable of all subjects.  We are, all of us, in a fight against Time.  It is a fight that we must inevitably lose.  Sooner or later we all end up on our own personal Last Stand Hill.  So how will you be remembered by those left behind?  Keep in mind that Bravery, although laudable, may not always be the ideal stance.  Don't be like George Armstrong Custer and lead those around you to disaster.  But keep in mind equally that Lack of Bravery, while understandable in flawed humans, will give you no advantage against the ultimate enemy.  Time flies the Flag of No Quarter.