The Covid Economy - Micro and Macro Views

Out and about on May 8th I noticed this:

I don't think yard sales are legal under any reasonable interpretation of current emergency regulations.  And while I am generally loathe to report upon law breaking - lest I aid and abet same - I'm making an exception today.

Now it must be said that there could be a loophole here somewhere.  There was no overt sales activity going on at the house I think this was pointing towards....although there was an array of stuff lined up in the garage and yard.  Maybe it is like a Speakeasy where you have to approach to within six feet and say "Big Tony sent me*".  Or, maybe the potential proprietors put this sign up and are waiting a while to officially open the sale.  You know, to see if the SWAT team starts cruising the neighborhood or anything.

In that sense you could regard this as something akin to a movie trailer.  Or tossing a bucket of chum in the water before you start fishing.  Just something to get a little interest going you know.  Nothing illegal about just putting up a sign, is there?  I mean in the immortal words of archie the cockroach (when discussing Prohibition with a parched, beer craving mummy on display in a museum)

 divine drouth

says i

imperial fritter

continue to think

there is no law against

that in this country

old salt codfish

if you keep quiet about it

not yet

We shall see.  Thrift sales in small town America are a fundamental institution, and if this bit of bargain basement civil disobedience goes unchecked I suspect we will see a bunch of signs pop up in the week ahead.  People in a community with very low covid rates are going to evaluate their risks and make decisions.

Of course there are harder questions on the macro scale, and with far greater consequences.

Disney is a gigantic corporation with many "product lines".  Some of them are very susceptible to problems in the Current Unpleasantness.  Theme parks, movie theaters, cruise ships.....these legitimately should be closed, at least for a while.  Much of their rather profitable licensed merch is made in China, that too could be a problem.  But I guess they also make money off things like streaming services which should be doing well.  

Last week Disney announced a 91% drop in profits for the quarter just ended.

I suppose on some level I could shrug and say "so what?".  I have not been a fan of most of their movies in recent years....a bit too much bludgeoning of plots to follow the latest political correctness and/or to appeal to overseas markets.  But hey, that's just their evaluation of market conditions.  They win or lose by the accuracy of their projections same as any other business.  But I have an ulterior motive in this one.

It's the robots.  Last year Disney - specifically their Star Wars franchise - was the major sponsor for FIRST Robotics.  They kicked in major cash and got their name/themes on some aspects of the competition in return.  With the FIRST season being cut short they might not have gotten their advertising money's worth, perhaps that's why they are again the Big Sponsor for the 2021 FIRST Season....if it happens.

I don't worry much about Disney.  The Mouse has been through economic hard times before and has always pulled through.  But how many quarters like the one just passed before they can't afford to sponsor things like FIRST robotics?  And how many other potential sponsors (at the FIRST organization level and at the local team level) have pockets less deep than Micky?  Uh.....most of them.

oddly no pockets visible.  Big ol' buttons though...

It is hard discussing the pros and cons of opening up America.  You'll be castigated for not caring about old people, even if you are one.  But at some point the current lock down begins to blight the futures of the young.  How many kids will not launch careers in STEM if FIRST goes under?  (Unlikely but not impossible should a second wave hit in the fall).  It's not a traditional engineering problem, but what might the equations look like? If you loosen restrictions you will presumably have more lives lost, primarily elderly folks who might not have had that many years ahead of them.  On the other side of the equation you have the diminishing of futures for much larger groups and with more years ahead than behind.  Students, young families, small business owners.  It has been said that all lives are priceless.  Emotionally that's true for your loved ones**.  But practically, for an entire society..... there has to be a conversion factor.

But I don't see anyone brave enough to step up to the blackboard and start doing the math.
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* I doubt that Governor Tony Evers would approve at all, but I think it makes a good Secret Password.

** Emotions don't translate to calculations well, but consider how many grandparents would be willing to accept a degree of personal risk to be with their grand children.  And are in fact doing so right now, guidelines be damned.